For the first time since eMarketer began estimating ad revenue for Google, the net US digital ad revenue of the search and advertising giant will decline. Combined with continued (although depressed) growth for Facebook and Amazon, this means that their market share has also declined.

According to current estimates, which factor in the global pandemic, ad revenues are expected to drop by 5.3% by the end of this year. That’s still $39 billion in ad revenue, but on the back of a predicted increase of 12.9%, it reflects the significant slow-down of advertising both in the US and globally.

Digital Market Still Increases, But Slowly

Even with the global slow-down Facebooks revenue is predicted to grow by 4.9% and Amazon by 23.5%, although this is unlikely to factor in the sudden drop in advertising caused by several large companies (including Coca-Cola, The Hershey Co., Unilever, Verizon, Honda, Birchbox, Ben & Jerry’s, The North Face, REI, and Patagonia as well as several US civil rights organisations) declaring that they would halt Facebook advertising (either permanently or temporarily) due to lack of effective moderation around political and discriminatory issues. (Coca-Cola‘s  1 month halt is expected to cost the social media giant R120 Billion alone.)

With a 1.7% total increase in the digital ad market in the US, 2020 represents the smallest digital gains in the industry in more than a decade, with a fall in travel advertising forming the largest part of the decline.